Beyond Borders: Unpacking Pakistan’s Power Play in South Asia

Written by : Roopampreet Kaur, B.A.LL.B , Lovely Professional University

Pakistan finds itself in a prickly and volatile theatre in South Asia, a position that is at times conflicting and contradictory.  Conceived out of Partition tragedy in 1947, this new nation sunk into an ideological, territorial and strategic battle, both from within and outside.  The decades have seen Pakistan dictated by the military, Islamic extremism, nuclear ambitions, and a growing antagonistic relationship with India.  But what are these high risk manoeuvres underlaying?  We will peel back the layers of Pakistan's power play in South Asia.

A nation carved by History and Strategy

The partition of India and establishing Pakistan were more than just political decisions; These were, in their own way, profound ideological and emotional ruptures.  Out of fear that Muslims were being politically marginalised in a Hindu–majority India, the Muslim League, led by Muhammad Ali Jinnah, lobbied for Pakistan.  Pakistan, the new state, took hold of its existence with broken provinces, indeterminate borders, and no institutional continuity.

 Despite these limitations, Pakistan's geostrategic position due to its geography was of great importance.  Lying between growing India, unstable Afghanistan, Iran rich in oil, and the Asian power broker China, Pakistan was soon courted by Cold War countries vying for influence in Asia.

Civil-Military Imbalance: The Silent Coup

Pakistan's soldiers never kept in their barracks like many democracies.  The nation has experienced three major military coups since 1958 and has gone for long periods of military control.  Organizations like Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and army dominates foreign policy and national security choice even under the civilian regimes.

 Why?  The Pakistani military finds itself to be a defender of its ideological and territorial integrity, not just a defence force.  The dominance of civil security on the structure of the government has produced a civil-military imbalance that is permanent, unbalances democratic accountability and compromises political stability.

Foreign Policy: Between Strategy and Survival

Pakistan's international relations have often been characterized by a survival – status – parity strategic balancing dance with India.

·         During the cold war, Pakistan allied with the US by joining SEATO and the CENTO in return for military and economic assistances.  In the 1980s, it became America's main ally in that Afghan jihad, training and assisting mujahideen fighters with the CIA.

·         China: By the by, Pakistan over a time started adjusting with China which it started thinking as a 'all weather friend.'  Besides, China's Belt and Road Initiative and the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is bringing a revolution in Pakistan's economy and infrastructure.

·         Russia: Relations with Russia recently have become friendly.  In this partnership, joint military drills and trade conversations break a new ground.

Diplomacy aside, these are more than just partnerships. there is no solution to this problem unless there is a total and complete change of Pakistan's domestic politics, defence needs and economical goals.

Strategic Rivalries with Neighbours

Pakistan has a geopolitical hotspot as a neighbourhood.  Strategically, it is dominated by tensions with India but is also important as ties with Afghanistan and Iran are.

·         India: Indo-Pakistan rivalry has been an important subject in the field of South Asian security right from Kashmir struggle to wars of 1947‐48, 1965 and 1971.  Then, too, trust gaps and border conflicts undid peace initiatives as well like the Lahore Declaration (1999) and the Agra Summit (2001) and blunted long term stability.

·         Afghanistan: There is a lot of suspicion in Pakistan's relations with Afghanistan.  Given the growing Indian influence in Afghanistan, Pakistan wants a friendly administration in Kabul so to avoid being strategically outflanked.  There are further complicating factors, including ethnic Pashtun concerns, the Durand Line, and the creation of the Taliban.

·         Iran: However, the traditional sectarian dynamics as well as the cross border concerns, particularly in Balochistan, mean handling of ties almost always has to be cautious.

Thus, Pakistan’s security strategy is very reactive and driven by felt encirclement threats.

The Kashmir Flashpoint

The Kashmir problem is a nuclear flashpoint between India and Pakistan.  While both countries claim the territory, neither have full jurisdiction over it.  However, diplomatic relations soured after 2019, when India scrapped Article 370, and Pakistan again brought it up.  Yet, Pakistan has been able to make minimal headway in rewriting the global narrative on the issue of Kashmir.

 Internally Pakistan has used Kashmir to ensure the justification of military spendings and defence nationalism.  The region's efforts for peace have been hampered by proxy conflicts and the backing of terrorists.

Wars, Cold war and Proxy battles

1965 and 1971 were watershed occasions.  Pakistan misread the scenario behind the war of 1965, which Pakistan also started on the false premise that the Kashmiris will revolt, and the war ended inconclusively but exposed the limits of Pakistan's military.  Nevertheless, the 1971 war turned tragic and lead to East Pakistan's independence causing the establishment of Bangladesh.

Pakistan, too, engaged in indirect conflicts during the Cold War, fighting mainly in Afghanistan where it backed anti-Soviet militants.  Such proxy battles only serve as a groundwork for future instability, for instance, emergence of Taliban groups and domestic extremism.

Islamic Fundamentalism: From Ally to Adversary

The speed with which Islamic radicalism has spread has speeded up with Pakistan's identity issue.  A dictatorship under General Zia-ul Haq made Islamization an official policy (1977–1988).  Extremist organizations like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed developed, but so did madrasas.

These groups, first seen as strategic assets in Kashmir and Afghanistan, have now become a home menace.  Domestic security has been eroded by acts of terrorism on schools, churches, shrines and military posts.

Pakistan's ambiguous outlook on terrorism has resulted in Pakistan being condemned, fined, blacklisted by the Financial Action Task Force on an international level.

The Nuclear Dimension

The formal unveiling of nuclear program in 1998 changed ...  Pakistan now moving to a "full-spectrum deterrence" posture, one created to counter India's nuclear weapons.

But the world worries about its command and control systems, the risk of unintended escalation, of renegade elements getting access to fissile material, and other elements.

All these hazards notwithstanding, Pakistani elite tends to espouse the notion of nuclear arms as a bastion of national pride and as weaponry of strategic importance.

Conclusion: What lies ahead?

Pakistan has always had a hybrid regional policy of defensive realism and ideological aspiration.  But this was too high stakes of a game to come without a price: These are the consequences of becoming economically vulnerable, internally unstable and diplomatically isolated.

To become a fully grown and responsible regional force, Pakistan will have to move away from the conflict-based strategy to collaborated efforts, from the military-first approach to people’s first government.  As students of defence and strategic studies, we need to ask ourselves whether Pakistan can transit from the geopolitics to the geoeconomics.  Can South Asia see itself as more than a prisoner to the past, or is peace an unattainable yearning?

References

1.      Ayesha Jalal, The Struggle for Pakistan: A Muslim Homeland and Global Politics (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, 2014).

2.      Ayesha Siddiqa, Military Inc.: Inside Pakistan’s Military Economy (Pluto Press, London, 2007).

3.      Sumit Ganguly, Conflict Unending: India–Pakistan Tensions Since 1947 (Columbia University Press, New York, 2001).

4.      Husain Haqqani, Pakistan: Between Mosque and Military (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington D.C., 2005).

5.      C. Christine Fair, Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army’s Way of War (Oxford University Press, New Delhi, 2014).

6.      Bruce Riedel, Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America, and the Future of the Global Jihad (Brookings Institution Press, Washington D.C., 2011).

7.      International Crisis Group, “Pakistan: Shifting Dynamics of Militant Violence” (Report No. 302, 2021), available at https://www.crisisgroup.org (last visited Apr. 25, 2025).

8.      Financial Action Task Force (FATF), “Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring – Pakistan” (2020–2022), available at https://www.fatf-gafi.org (last visited Apr. 25, 2025).

9.      Dawn News Archives, The Hindu Archives, BBC News, available at https://www.dawn.com, https://www.thehindu.com, https://www.bbc.com/news (last visited Apr. 25, 2025).